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Prostate cancer mortality predictions for Ireland up to 2015.

O'Lorcain P, Comber H

National Cancer Registry, Elm Court, Cork, Ireland.

The objective of this analysis was to predict average world age-standardized mortality rates per person-years (100,000 person-years) and numbers of prostate cancer deaths in Ireland for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015. Poisson linear and log-linear regression models of Irish prostate cancer mortality data for the years 1950-2002 were used to predict trends for the whole population, for men aged 0-64 and 50-74 years. The prostate cancer world age-standardized mortality rate in 2015 is predicted to remain unchanged from the average recorded in 1998-2002, while, because of population growth, the number of deaths is predicted to increase. In persons under 65 years of age, the world age-standardized mortality rate is expected to increase, but the number of deaths in this age group is expected to nearly double between 2002 and 2015. Similarly, the world age-standardized mortality rate for men aged 50-74 years is predicted to rise with the number of deaths in this age group expected to increase sharply. The historical evidence predicts a small increase of age-adjusted prostate cancer mortality rates in Ireland and only in the age groups of 0-64 and 50-74 years in the next 10 years, along with a continuing marked increase in number of deaths due to demographic change.

Published 7 June 2007 in Eur J Cancer Prev, 16(4): 328-33.
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